Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.