‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials insists there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.